Fair Housing Notice

LUXURY MARKET REPORT 2020
Report on Contracts Signed
Manhattan Residential Properties $4 Million and Above
2020 YEAR END REPORT

Not since the bleak days of the Lehman Brothers crash in September 2008 and the subsequent fallout into March 2009 has the Manhattan luxury real estate market experienced such an unpredictable and disruptive impact as the Covid-19 Pandemic of 2020. After all, let’s not forget that the Coronavirus blew a hole in the entire Spring market with a New York State lockdown that prevented showings from March 22 to June 22.

As a result, 2020 ended with a 31% decrease over 2019 in the number of contracts signed at $4 million and above in Manhattan. Year-to-date, 645 contracts have been signed totaling $5,082,652,981. It was the lowest total since 2011 when 582 contracts were signed.

Drilling down through the numbers, a couple of things stand out: The average price drop from the original asking price to the last asking price was 12%. The average days on the market swelled to 586 days from 496, mostly because developers were reluctant to discount inventory, often at their own peril.

To recap the downward arc over the last three years: The air started to come out of the luxury market once January 2018 hit with a change in the Federal tax law that capped state, local, and real estate tax deductions at a total of $10,000. In addition, mortgage interest was capped on new purchases up to $750,000. Further downward pressure was exerted in 2019 when New York State decided to raise mansion and transfer taxes along with onerous changes in the rent laws that discouraged investors.

But the Pandemic was something else: A Covid shutdown sent buyers running for the Hamptons, suburbs, and beyond. It was more drama than any market could withstand as Manhattan sellers started slashing prices. By Summer, a handful of intrepid, opportunistic buyers slowly emerged, riding the back of lower prices, low interest rates, a rebounding stock market, and the belief that New York would return to its glory days.

This set the stage for an uptick in the fourth quarter, which registered more signed contracts than over the same period last year: 232 contracts vs. 229 in 2019. So far, this year’s 4th quarter volume total is $1,872,114,484 vs. $1,784,083,999 in 2019. This is not to imply that the 4th quarter’s performance will extend into next year’s first quarter. After all, we live in unpredictable and disruptive times.

Olshan Realty wants to wish all of you Happy Holidays and please Stay Safe!!


CLICK HERE To View the Olshan Luxury Report for the week of December 14-20, 2020.


NYC Luxury Report: Year End 2013-2020


Contracts Signed $4 M and above 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
# of Co-op Contracts
$4 million and above
288 282 296 222 252 251 222 133
# of Condo Contracts
$4 million and above
905 891 904 751 810 728 595 418
# of Condop Contracts
$4 million and above
49 14 14 17 10 10 4 2
Total # of Contracts
Signed on Apartments
1242 1187 1214 990 1072 989 821 553
# of Townhouse Contracts
$4 million and above
130 153 130 112 100 119 114 92
Total # of Contracts Signed
Apartments + Houses
1372 1340 1344 1102 1172 1108 935 645
# of Contracts Purchased
from Sponsors/New Development
475 481 456 435 440 426 278 206
# of Contracts Signed
Asking $10 million and above
252 270 227 215 200 207 184 106
Total Volume $10,854,826,824 $11,256,284,299 $10,738,479,892 $8,937,866,862 $9,104,329,032 $9,077,371,226 $7,651,428,687 $5,082,652,981
Average Asking Price $7,851,594 $8,140,776 $7,940,624 $8,090,463 $7,761,413 $8,180,303 $8,174,955 $7,934,564
Median Asking Price $6,366,072 $6,440,048 $6,289,375 $6,367,820 $6,149,606 $6,289,038 $6,199,375 $6,663,763
Average Price Decline
Before a Signed Contract
3% 4% 5% 6% 8% 9% 10% 12%
Days on Market 172 181 243 318 433 447 496 586
Condo Average Asking Price $7,719,542 $7,832,105 $7,739,656 $8,099,463 $7,868,236 $8,211,488 $8,092,820 $8,164,897
Condo Average
Asking $/sq.ft.
$2,766 $2,783 $2,825 $2,929 $2,874 $2,932 $2,802 $2,733
Condo Average Size 2,814 2,801 2,731 2,755 2,725 2,797 2,874 2,953
Co-op Average Asking Price $6,756,788 $7,727,973 $7,280,086 $7,063,249 $6,665,210 $7,356,186 $6,674,134 $6,485,039
Townhouse Average Asking Price $9,514,252 $10,256,784 $10,993,444 $10,400,788 $9,559,078 $10,012,419 $11,003,869 $9,543,909
Townhouse Average
Asking $/sq.ft.
$1,750 $1,829 $2,077 $1,944 $1,897 $1,797 $1,801 $1,619
Townhouse Average Size 5,553 5,621 5,288 5,531 5,208 5,638 6,251 5,991


END OF THE YEAR 2020 REPORT
2020: 645 Total Contracts Signed on All Properties
2019: 935 Total Contracts Signed on All Properties
2018: 1108 Total Contracts Signed on All Properties
2017: 1172 Total Contracts Signed on All Properties
2016: 1102 Total Contracts Signed on All Properties


NYC Luxury Tracking Scoreboard: Sales $4 Million and Above


East West Midtown Downtown Totals Avg. Co-op
Asking
Avg. Condo
Asking
Avg. Condo
Ask $/ft
Avg. Condo
Ask $/ft
2020
Apartments
135 107 45 266 553 $6,485,039 $8,164,897 $2,733/sq.ft. 2,953 sq.ft.
2019
Apartments
205 165 70 381 821 $6,674,134 $8,092,820 $2,802/sq.ft. 2,874 sq.ft.
2018
Apartments
216 219 115 439 989 $7,356,186 $8,211,488 $2,932/sq.ft. 2,797/sq.ft.
2017
Apartments
252 178 132 510 1,072 $6,665,210 $7,868,236 $2,874/sq.ft. 2,725/sq.ft.
2016
Apartments
195 161 138 496 990 $7,063,249 $8,099,463 $2,929/sq.ft 2,755/sq.ft
East West Midtown Downtown Totals Avg. Townhouse
Asking Price
Avg, $/sq.ft. Avg. Size
2020
Townhouses
29 18 5 40 92 $9,543,909 $1,619/sq.ft. 5,991sq.ft.
2019
Townhouses
44 20 7 43 114 $11,003,869 $1,801/sq.ft. 6,251sq.ft.
2018
Townhouses
35 25 9 50 119 $10,012,419 $1,797/sq.ft. 5,638 sq.ft.
2017
Townhouses
29 28 11 32 100 $9,559,078 $1,897/sq.ft. 5,208 sq.ft.
2016
Townhouses
32 32 5 43 112 $10,400,788 $1,944/sq.ft 5,531/sq.ft


SUMMARY 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Total Volume: $8,937,866,862 $9,104,329,032 $9,077,371,226 $7,651,428,687 $5,082,652,981
Average Asking Price on All Properties: $8,090,435 $7,761,413 $8,180,303 $8,174,955 $7,934,564
Median Price on All Properties: $6,367,820 $6,149,606 $6,289,038 $6,199,375 $6,663,763
Average Discount from Original Ask to Last Asking Price 6% 8% 9% 10% 12%
Average Days on The Market: 318 433 447 496 586




Source: Olshan Realty




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