YEAR END REPORT 2019


Report on Contracts Signed
NYC Residential Properties
YEAR END REPORT
2019

935 Contracts Signed

2019 ended with a 16% decrease over 2018 in the number of contracts signed at $4 million and above in Manhattan. Year-to-date, 935 contracts have been signed, totaling $7.65 billion, the lowest dollar volume since 2012. A decline in deals has been a trend since January 2018, when a change in the Federal tax law capped state, local, and real estate tax deductions at a total of $10,000. In addition, buyers can now only deduct interest on new mortgages below $750,000. Fueling the down cycle: a bloat in overpriced inventory, and a 2019 state law that raised the mansion and transfer taxes. In addition, onerous rent laws that passed in June discouraged investors from purchasing properties as a rental investment.

To recap the year: This year’s dismal 1st quarter saw a 19% decrease in the number of contracts signed over the same period in 2018, the likely result of the December 2018 stock market plunge, the worst since 1931 when the Great Depression kicked into high gear. The 2nd quarter saw a slight improvement—but still registered 13% fewer signed contracts over 2Q 2018, as buyers rushed to close before the July 1 deadline when mansion and transfer taxes would go into effect. This rush to close poached sales from the 3rd quarter, the worst of the year: Signed contracts plummeted 24% over the same period in 2018. The current 4th quarter has so far seen healthy activity in November and December, most likely due to price cutting, though the quarter is still tracking 7% fewer contracts signed over the same period in 2018.

One submarket that was desperately trying to hang on to its lofty prices was new development, as sponsors seemed locked into models that are no longer sustainable. And they paid the price (no pun intended): a whopping 35% decline in new development condo contracts signed in 2019 over 2018.

Other notable trends: The condo market recorded a 18% decline in the number of contracts signed. The average $/sq.ft. condo asking price fell to $2,802/sq.ft. from $2,932/sq.ft. in 2018. And there was a 11% decline in the number of contracts signed for all properties asking $10 million or more.

One bright spot was the townhouse market: 114 houses had contracts signed compared to 119 houses in 2018 and 100 in 2017. The average asking price of $1,801/sq.ft. was about the same as 2018 ($1,797/sq.ft.).

Drilling down through the numbers, a couple of things stand out: The length of time on the market stretched to 496 days, up from 447 days in 2018, and up from 433 days in 2017 and 318 days in 2016. This worrisome trend reflected an overpriced market in which a typical property dropped its asking price by 10% before it found a buyer. The luxury market showed clear signs of strong buyer resistance, prompting ongoing price corrections that ignited more activity in the final 2 months of the year. It’s a fragile market by any measure, and it seems obvious that a sustained uptick in sales can not be realized until the market resets its prices.

Happy Holidays to all, and to all a healthy and peaceful 2020.

CLICK HERE To View the Olshan Luxury Report for the week of December 16-22, 2019.


NYC Luxury Report: Year End 2013-2019


Contracts Signed $4 M and above 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
# of Co-op Contracts $4 million and above 288 282 296 222 252 251 222
# of Condo Contracts $4 million and above 905 891 904 751 810 728 595
# of Condop Contracts at $4 million and above 49 14 14 17 10 10 4
Total # of Contracts Signed on Apartments 1242 1187 1214 990 1072 989 821
# of Townhouse Contracts $4 million and above 130 153 130 112 100 119 114
Total # of Contracts Signed Apartments + Houses 1372 1340 1344 1102 1172 1108 935
# of Contracts Purchased from Sponsors/New Development 475 481 456 435 440 426 278
# of Contracts Signed Asking $10 million and above 252 270 227 215 200 207 184
Total Volume $10,854,826,824 $11,256,284,299 $10,738,479,892 $8,937,866,862 $9,104,329,032 $9,077,371,226 $7,651,428,687
Average Asking Price $7,851,594 $8,140,776 $7,940,624 $8,090,463 $7,761,413 $8,180,303 $8,174,955
Median Asking Price $6,366,072 $6,440,048 $6,289,375 $6,367,820 $6,149,606 $6,289,038 $6,199,375
Average Price Decline Before a Signed Contract 3% 4% 5% 6% 8% 9% 10%
Days on Market 172 181 243 318 433 447 496
Condo Average Asking Price $7,719,542 $7,832,105 $7,739,656 $8,099,463 $7,868,236 $8,211,488 $8,092,820
Condo Average Asking $/sq.ft. $2,766 $2,783 $2,825 $2,929 $2,874 $2,932 $2,802
Condo Average Size 2,814 2,801 2,731 2,755 2,725 2,797 2,874
Co-op Average Asking Price $6,756,788 $7,727,973 $7,280,086 $7,063,249 $6,665,210 $7,356,186 $6,674,134
Townhouse Average Asking Price $9,514,252 $10,256,784 $10,993,444 $10,400,788 $9,559,078 $10,012,419 $11,003,869
Townhouse Average Asking $/sq.ft. $1,750 $1,829 $2,077 $1,944 $1,897 $1,797 $1,801
Townhouse Average Size 5,553 5,621 5,288 5,531 5,208 5,638 6,251



END OF THE YEAR 2019 REPORT
2019: 935 Total Contracts Signed on All Properties
2018: 1108 Total Contracts Signed on All Properties
2017: 1172 Total Contracts Signed on All Properties
2016: 1102 Total Contracts Signed on All Properties

NYC Luxury Tracking Scoreboard: Sales $4 Million and Above


East West Midtown Downtown Totals Avg. Co-op Ask Avg. Condo Ask Avg. Condo Ask $/ft Avg. Condo Ask $/ft
2019
Apartments
205 165 70 381 821 $6,674,134 $8,092,820 $2,802/sq.ft. 2,874 sq.ft.
2018
Apartments
216 219 115 439 989 $7,356,186 $8,211,488 $2,932/sq.ft. 2,797/sq.ft.
2017
Apartments
252 178 132 510 1,072 $6,665,210 $7,868,236 $2,874/sq.ft. 2,725/sq.ft.
2016
Apartments
195 161 138 496 990 $7,063,249 $8,099,463 $2,929/sq.ft 2,755/sq.ft
East West Midtown Downtown Totals Avg. Townhouse Asking Price Avg, $/sq.ft. Avg. Size
2019
Townhouses
44 20 7 43 114 $11,003,869 $1,801/sq.ft. 6,251sq.ft.
2018
Townhouses
35 25 9 50 119 $10,012,419 $1,797/sq.ft. 5,638 sq.ft.
2017
Townhouses
29 28 11 32 100 $9,559,078 $1,897/sq.ft. 5,208 sq.ft.
2016
Townhouses
32 32 5 43 112 $10,400,788 $1,944/sq.ft 5, 531/sq.ft


SUMMARY 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total Volume: $8,937,866,862 $9,104,329,032 $9,077,371,226 $7,651,428,687
Average Asking Price on All Properties: $8,090,435 $7,761,413 $8,180,303 $8,174,955
Median Price on All Properties: $6,367,820 $6,149,606 $6,289,038 $6,199,375
Average Discount from Original Ask to Last Asking Price 6% 8% 9% 10%
Average Days on The Market: 318 433 447 496



Select a Date to compare 2020 with previous years

Source: Olshan Realty




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